Introducing the Inland-Coastal Flooding Operational Guidance System (ICOGS)

Aerial imagery of inland-coastal flooding during Hurricane Harvey, 2017 in Houston, Texas.

Where the river meets the sea can be both a turbulent and vulnerable space, particularly during strong storms when heavy precipitation and storm surge intersect. This intersection is known as “compound inland-coastal flooding,” and until now, had not been carefully studied and implemented in forecasting centers for public guidance due to its inherent complexity. NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science recently developed the Inland-Coastal Flooding Operational Guidance System (ICOGS), the world’s first three-dimensional integrated compound inland-coastal flooding guidance system.

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Model Upgrade: Extratropical Surge & Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) is Now Global

An example of maximum forecast water levels (m MSL) from a forecast cycle of Global ESTOFS.

On November 24, an upgrade to Global ESTOFS was implemented to provide NWS forecasters with high resolution water level forecast guidance including storm tide (storm surge plus tides) for the entire globe. Global ESTOFS forecast guidance will be used by forecasters at WFOs and the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) to generate their storm surge forecasts during winter storms including Nor’easters along the U.S. East Coast.

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